politicalprof:

Parsimony, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump

As Democrats undergo their quadrennial “why aren’t we winning big against this guy?” freakout, a quick thought:

Social science has an informal dictum called
“parsimony.” Parsimony means that the best explanation is the simplest one that explains the most variance. It might not be a total explanation, but it’s the best explanation.

We are in a particularly unparsimonious moment. Pretty much everyone believes that if only Kamala Harris would follow their preferred strategy – more interviews! fewer interviews! more radical politics! more mainstream politics! – then she’d be winning big.

If only.

In contrast, let me suggest five core elements of this campaign that have not and cannot change. Accordingly, the dynamics of the race are fairly fixed and fairly close. In five words, these are: woman, color, context, cult, and media.

Woman: Kamala Harris is one. And like it or not, misogyny is a strong thing (as we were reminded in 2016). Lots of people don’t think women are or can be leaders/presidents/competent. That isn’t likely to change during a presidential race. It’s not “fair.” It’s just true.

Color: Kamala Harris has one that isn’t white. Racism is a strong thing (as we are reminded constantly). Lots of people don’t think people of color are or can be leaders/presidents/competent. That isn’t likely to change during a presidential race. It’s not “fair.” It’s just true.

Context: Fairly or not, the last few years have been “blamed” on Joe Biden. Lots of people have decided that the events of COVID and protests of 2020 (when Donald Trump was president) are Biden’s fault since he was *elected* in 2020. Inflation, immigration, and Israel have overwhelmed the stunning number of real accomplishments of the Biden administration. That isn’t likely to change during a presidential race. It’s not “fair.” It’s just true.

Cult: Donald Trump leads one. His supporters *believe.* Facts are reinterpreted to fit the narrative. Obvious failures are explained away or outright ignored. Empirical experiences are denied by those who experienced them. None of this is likely to change during a presidential race. It’s not “fair.” It’s just true.

Media: It fundamentally *loves* Donald Trump. Not, notably, because its members support his politics. Rather, most US media is for profit and Donald Trump drives clicks, eyeballs, retweets, whatever. He is an anchor of the attention economy. So long as we pay attention he will dominate attention. None of this is likely to change during a presidential race. It’s not “fair.” It’s just true.

Five core factors don’t change with temporary tactics.

What might work? Turnout. Massive turnout favors Democrats. It’s about who shows up and votes and election day, not about specific campaign tactics. It always has been.